ArticlesAROUND THE WORLD WITH SEYMOUR J. MANSFIELD
|
| Asset Class | Yield |
| "High Risk" | |
| US Small Cap | +2.3% |
| EAFE | -1.4% |
| S&P 500 | - 3.5% |
| "Low Risk" | |
| Bonds | +3.5% |
| US T Bills | + .3% |
High risk equity assets suffered in the last 10 years, while low risk cash and bonds out-performed stocks.
Foundation and Endowment Investment Portfolios exist to fund grants for charitable giving commitments. One mistake many Investment Managers/Investment Committees made was that they did not have adequate, safe, liquid investments to meet their budgeted cash flow obligations. Because of this last down cycle, many entities, such as Harvard University, which failed to include sufficient fixed income and dividend investments in their portfolio, had to borrow substantial funds to meet their obligations due to inadequate liquidity. Others have had to cut staff, shave and eliminate grantees or terminate or impose moratoriums on grant renewals or applications.
"Read the find print." All investments in LLC Partnerships have no short term market, and any investment in Hedge Funds (and even Mutual Funds) can restrict redemptions at their will leaving the foundation locked into under- and non-performing assets. Abnormal high allocations to these non-liquid investments are inappropriate for foundation and endowment portfolios.
The moral of the story is to be reasonably diversified in your portfolio. To cover such material disbursements needed from the investment portfolio, you should put in place liquid assets to cover your projected cash outflows for at least two years to create a fail safe against unexpected volatility in market values.
2) Diversification:
Yes diversify, but further refine the definition to "Non Correlated" asset classes.
Example: Investing in small caps, midcaps and foreign equities does not really diversify/insulate the portfolio from downside price risk. All equity indexes suffered in the 2008 melt-down. You should have some exposure to commodities (ETF's or Funds) such as precious metals, energy, food, and other "real" assets to protect you from inflation. Also, you should have a reasonable exposure to high-grade fixed income investments to ride out deflationary environments (like we are experiencing at the present). Many foundations plowed head first into "Alternative Assets" the past five years or so, and found they were not very liquid, and susceptible to major volatility in market prices. Also, alternative investments that contain Private Equity and leveraged Hedge Funds may actually increase the portfolio risk to downside movements. Know what you are buying! Demand absolute transparency of the underlying assets and your risk exposure in any Hedge Fund or Fund of Funds.
Further Insights for navigating market melt-downs gained from Bremer's Conservative Investment Strategies
First, let's take a look at Bremer's performance:
In 2008, the Common Fund, a national investment advisor firm, recognized the Otto Bremer Foundation as the best performing investment fund of all the Foundations and Endowments in its data base. In fact, it was an outlier with a return of -5.00% versus an average peer loss of -36% for that year.
Bremer Bank's Fixed Income portfolio also performed much better than its peers, ranking in the top quartile according to the Federal Reserve Call Reports for 2007, 2008, and 2009.
During the past three years of the banking economic crisis, as of December 31, 2009, Bremer has realized $25 Million in gains and had unrealized gains of $40 Million in the portfolio. Bremer also maintains a portfolio yield much higher than that of its peers.
How did Bremer achieve these excellent results?
The successful investment results are attributed to a discipline of hard work, research, and confidence in analyzing data versus running with the perceived "safe", "momentum," popular, or "structured" investment strategies being pushed at the time.
We recognized that the housing and related mortgage industry was far overvalued and did not make any investments in vehicles, such as CDO's, CMO's CLO's SIV's, Auction Rate PFD's, or equity investment in FNMA Preferred Stock or FHLM Preferred Stock ( that went to $0.00!). All of the above categories were over-valued and over leveraged.
We followed Dr. Robert Shiller, the renowned Economist at the Yale University, and Jeremy Grantham, CIO of GMO[m1] , who produced clear, empirical evidence of the volatility of the housing bubble well in advance of the burst.
The Bank also increased its exposure to long-term Government Guaranteed Fixed Income Investments at the top of the interest rate cycle.
The Otto Bremer Foundation also benefited because we maintained a high allocation of Fixed Income, Government Guaranteed Bonds, and avoided the standard asset class exposure to "Private Equity" and other crowded, overvalued alternative asset classes. We substantially reduced our exposure to Energy and International Investments early in 2008, and also avoided the commodity melt down.
By following these strategies, Bremer minimized the Foundation's 2008 losses to a small fraction of that of its peers and achieved significant investment gains on the Bank's portfolios during the 2008-2009 market melt down.
Conclusion:
It's still a tough investment environment even with the nice bounce back we had in the past year in equities. Stocks are high to fairly valued. Bonds are also very low yielding. Where does that leave the foundation and endowment investment manager?
Stay well diversified; prepare for bouts of both deflation (at the present) and inflation (in the future). You should lower your portfolio yield expectations and not chase the high risk sector investments to "catch up" with your prior losses. Evaluate and hire good outside Investment Managers that have a successful track record in both up and down market cycles over many years.
[m1]SPELL OUT.



